If you’ve ever looked at an NFL coaching hire and thought, Haven’t I seen this disaster before?, you’re not alone. The NFL has a bizarre obsession with recycling the same 10-15 head coaches, even when they’ve already proven they’re about as effective as a broken headset on the sideline.
The Science of Mediocrity: A Look at the Stats
To understand just how ridiculous this cycle is, let’s break down some numbers. Since 2000:
- 25% of head coaching hires have been former head coaches getting a second (or third, or fourth) chance.
- Nearly 40% of these retread hires have failed to produce a winning record in their new role.
- Coaches fired from their previous job due to poor performance still get another shot nearly 70% of the time.
- Meanwhile, first-time hires, particularly minority coaches, are given significantly shorter leashes and fewer second chances.
The Usual Suspects: NFL’s Most Persistent Retreads
Let’s highlight a few of the coaching world’s greatest failures—men who somehow keep convincing desperate owners that this time will be different:
- Josh McDaniels – A living legend in the world of second chances. After a disastrous tenure with the Broncos, McDaniels slithered back to New England before conning the Raiders into thinking he had changed. Spoiler alert: He hadn’t.
- Adam Gase – Somehow landed the Jets’ head coaching job after running the Dolphins into the ground. His main qualification? Once working with Peyton Manning. (Spoiler: That was 90% Peyton, 10% Gase standing around.)
- Jeff Fisher – A masterclass in mediocrity. He coached for 22 years, made the playoffs six times, and somehow kept getting work despite his eternal 7-9 aura.
- Lovie Smith – Has the NFL’s weirdest ability to look like a good hire for one season before immediately tanking.
- Norv Turner, Jim Caldwell, Mike McCarthy, Jason Garrett – If your team has hired one of these guys, congratulations, you’re locked in for three years of uninspired offense, questionable game management, and an inevitable 9-8 finish.
The NFL’s Broken Hiring Process
So, why does this keep happening? The answer lies in a combination of fear, nepotism, and a weird refusal to embrace fresh ideas.
- Owners fear the unknown. It’s easier to hire someone with “experience” than to take a risk on an up-and-coming coordinator.
- Nepotism rules everything. Many of these guys are just well-connected. You coach with Belichick for five minutes? Congrats, you’re getting a head coaching job.
- “He just needs the right situation!” syndrome. Teams convince themselves that a failed coach just needs better players, even when their schemes are outdated and their decision-making is worse than a Madden simulation.
The Real Victims: Coaches Who Actually Deserve a Shot
For every time the NFL gives Jeff Fisher another chance, a more innovative coach is left waiting. Just look at Eric Bieniemy—stuck interviewing year after year despite designing one of the league’s best offenses with the Chiefs. Meanwhile, guys like Matt Patricia get promoted for being terrible at their jobs.
Conclusion: Stop the Madness
The NFL’s coaching rehire machine is broken, and the only way to fix it is for teams to actually start making smarter decisions. If your team is about to hire a retread coach, ask yourself: Are we really going to be the ones who fix him? Spoiler alert: You’re not.
At this point, it might be more effective to just let Madden auto-generate a coach. At least then you wouldn’t be stuck watching Josh McDaniels fail again.
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