Alright, Mariners fans, let’s rip the Band-Aid off as spring training ramps up: Julio Rodríguez is still the dude who could swipe a bag and crush a homer before you finish your beer, but 2024 left Seattle with an 85-77 record, no playoffs, and a nagging fear his prime’s slipping away. The kid’s a superstar, yet the team’s floundering—here’s what tanked last year, why it stings, and if there’s still hope, or if we’re watching J-Rod turn into the next “great player, lame squad” tragedy.
2024: A Tease That Tanked
Last season, the Mariners rolled out a rotation that was straight fire—Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo combined for a league-best 3.27 ERA. Rodríguez, fresh off a 32-homer, 37-steal ’23, had Seattle up 10 games in the AL West by June. Then the offense went MIA, the bullpen wobbled, and a 19-31 skid from July to September turned a sure thing into a “see ya next year.” They missed the Wild Card by two games, leaving fans wondering if the front office spent their budget on stadium popcorn instead of a decent bat.
Rodríguez held his own—.273/.325/.409, 20 HRs, 24 SBs—but an ankle sprain shelved him for three weeks, and his .173 average against off-speed pitches (down from .250 in ’22) showed pitchers sniffed out a kink. He finished hot, hitting .328 with 11 homers in July and September, but Cal Raleigh’s 34 dingers aside, the lineup couldn’t back him up—J.P. Crawford (.202), Jorge Polanco (.213), and Mitch Garver (15 HRs, -0.4 fWAR) were more bust than boost.
Where It Fell Apart
The window cracked open in ’22 with a 90-win playoff run, and Rodríguez, locked up through 2029 (options to 2036), should anchor a powerhouse. But ’24 was a kick in the shins. The offense’s .669 OPS ranked 28th—only four playoff teams since ’69 were worse. Jerry Dipoto’s big swings were Garver and Polanco—guys with upside, sure, but not the thump to fix a lineup that makes T-Mobile Park a black hole for offense. The Astros and Rangers pounced, and Seattle’s lead fizzled. Rodríguez, at 24, isn’t cooked—he’s pre-prime—but ’24 feels like a squandered shot.
The Cautionary Tale
Baseball’s full of stars stuck on blah teams—Mike Trout’s Angels limbo, Griffey’s early Mariners grind pre-’95. Rodríguez’s 3.8 fWAR in ’24 was top-20 in the AL, and he’s one of two guys ever with 20-20 in his first three seasons (Bobby Bonds waves hello). But without a crew, he’s just a highlight reel on a .500 club. The pitching’s set—Gilbert and Kirby through ’27, Miller and Woo through ’28—but if the bats stay asleep, this window’s slamming shut.
Any Hope Left?
Spring training’s got a pulse. Rodríguez is tweaking his swing with new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, who juiced the Braves’ lineup, and a full season could see him back at 30-30. The rotation’s still nasty, and Edgar Martinez’s late-’24 spark (.791 team OPS in September) hints at life. But if Dipoto doesn’t snag a hitter—or three—this roster’s treading water. Fans deserve better than “close.” Here’s hoping ’25 is a bang, not a whimper.
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