The Winnipeg Jets entered the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs as the Presidents’ Trophy winners, boasting a formidable regular-season record and the home-ice advantage throughout the postseason. However, after dropping Game 1 of their Western Conference Second Round series against the Dallas Stars by a score of 3-2, the Jets’ playoff hopes may already be teetering on the brink. Game 1, played at Canada Life Centre, was supposed to be a fortress for Winnipeg, but a natural hat trick by Dallas’ Mikko Rantanen in the second period exposed vulnerabilities that could spell doom for the Jets’ championship aspirations.
The Home-Ice Crutch: How the Jets Survived the Blues
In the first round, the Jets leaned heavily on their home-ice advantage to outlast a resurgent St. Louis Blues team in a grueling seven-game series. Winnipeg won all four home games, including a dramatic 4-3 double-overtime victory in Game 7, where they erased a 3-1 deficit with two goals in the final two minutes of regulation. The “Winnipeg Whiteout” at Canada Life Centre was a catalyst, fueling the team’s resilience and energizing the crowd to rattle the Blues.
However, the Jets’ road performance told a different story. In St. Louis, they were outscored 17-5 across three games, with goaltender Connor Hellebuyck pulled in each contest. Hellebuyck, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and a Hart Trophy finalist, posted a dismal 3.85 goals-against average (GAA) and .830 save percentage in the series, with his road games being particularly catastrophic. His backup, Eric Comrie, provided solid relief, posting a 1.40 GAA and .923 save percentage in limited action. Despite these struggles, the Jets’ home dominance allowed them to advance, but it also highlighted a dangerous dependency on playing at home.
The Blues Are Not the Stars
While the Blues deserve credit for their explosive late-season surge—going 19-4-3 after the 4 Nations Face-Off to secure the second wild card spot—they are not the Dallas Stars. The Stars dispatched the Colorado Avalanche, my personal favorite to represent the West in the Stanley Cup Final, in a thrilling seven-game series. Dallas’ Game 7 comeback, overcoming a 2-0 third-period deficit to win 4-2, showcased their depth, resilience, and star power. Mikko Rantanen, who haunted his former team with a hat trick in Game 7, carried that momentum into Game 1 against the Jets, single-handedly swinging the contest with his second-period outburst.
The Stars are a deeper, more balanced team than the Blues. Their top line of Rantanen, Roope Hintz, and Mikael Granlund combined for 21 points against Colorado, while depth players like Wyatt Johnston, Tyler Seguin, and Mason Marchment chipped in crucial goals. Dallas’ goaltender, Jake Oettinger, outperformed Hellebuyck in the first round, posting a 2.85 GAA and .911 save percentage, and his clutch performance in Game 7—shutting down the Avalanche for the final 19:29—underscored his big-game pedigree. With Jason Robertson returning from injury to bolster their lineup, the Stars are a juggernaut that the Jets may not be equipped to handle, especially if they can’t protect home ice.
Hellebuyck’s Road Woes and the Comrie Conundrum
Hellebuyck’s postseason struggles are well-documented. Despite his regular-season brilliance (47-12-3, 2.00 GAA, .925 save percentage, eight shutouts), he has failed to replicate that form in recent playoffs. Against the Blues, he allowed 10 goals above expected, the worst seven-game stretch of his career. His road performances were particularly alarming, with the Blues capitalizing on screens, deflections, and net-front chaos to exploit his positioning. In contrast, Hellebuyck was stellar at home, going 4-0 with a 2.20 GAA and .885 save percentage, looking more like the Vezina-caliber netminder fans expect.
One potential strategy for the Jets is to start Eric Comrie in road games, particularly in Dallas for Games 3 and 4. Comrie’s limited appearances against the Blues showed promise, and his 2.39 GAA and .914 save percentage in 20 regular-season starts suggest he can handle spot duty. Starting Comrie on the road could preserve Hellebuyck’s confidence and workload, allowing him to focus on dominating at home, where he thrives. However, this move is a gamble. Hellebuyck is the backbone of the Jets, and benching him could shake his mental state, especially given his intense self-expectations. As he told reporters before Game 5 against the Blues, “I’ve studied goaltending extremely hard. I’ve probably studied the most out of anyone in this world, so I know what to do and how to get my best game.” Any perceived lack of trust from coach Scott Arniel could disrupt Hellebuyck’s psyche, and with Arniel showing no inclination to start Comrie in the first round, it’s unlikely he’ll pivot now.
Why Game 1 Hurts So Much
Losing Game 1 at home is a devastating blow for a team that relied on home-ice dominance to survive the first round. The Jets went 0-for-4 on the power play and outshot the Stars 32-24, but Rantanen’s heroics and Oettinger’s steady goaltending stole the momentum. Teams that win Game 1 of a best-of-7 series have a 68.1% chance of advancing, and for the Stars, who snapped an eight-game Game 1 losing streak, this victory could be a springboard. Winnipeg’s inability to capitalize on home ice early in the series puts them in a precarious position, especially with the Stars’ depth and goaltending edge.
The Jets’ path forward is narrow. They must win Game 2 to avoid falling into a 0-2 hole before heading to Dallas, where their road struggles could resurface. Without Mark Scheifele (a game-time decision for Game 1) and potentially Josh Morrissey, who left Game 7 against the Blues with an injury, Winnipeg’s star power is depleted. Meanwhile, the Stars are battle-tested, having overcome a Colorado team with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. If Hellebuyck can’t rediscover his regular-season form—and if the Jets don’t find a way to steal a road game—the series could slip away quickly.
The Nail in the Coffin?
Game 1 may not end the Jets’ season, but it’s a stark reminder that their margin for error is razor-thin. The home-ice advantage they leaned on against the Blues is no longer a guarantee, and the Dallas Stars are a far more formidable opponent. Unless Winnipeg can adapt—perhaps by taking the bold step of starting Comrie on the road or finding secondary scoring to complement Kyle Connor—the Jets’ playoff run could be over sooner than expected. Game 1 wasn’t just a loss; it was a warning that the Jets’ blueprint for success may not hold up against a team as relentless as Dallas.
Sources: NHL.com, The Athletic, Daily Faceoff, ESPN, posts on X
Leave a comment