The Seattle Seahawks have made a bold move this offseason, signing quarterback Sam Darnold to a three-year, $100.5 million deal after trading away Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders. Coming off a career-best season with the Minnesota Vikings, Darnold’s arrival in Seattle has sparked both excitement and skepticism among fans and analysts alike. On paper, Darnold’s 2024 metrics outshine Smith’s, with 4,319 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, and a 102.5 passer rating compared to Smith’s 4,320 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 93.2 rating. But numbers don’t tell the whole story—context does. And the context Darnold steps into in Seattle is a far cry from the cushy situation he enjoyed in Minnesota. With a weaker offensive line, the loss of elite receiver Justin Jefferson, and the recent trade of DK Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Darnold’s 2025 season could be a turbulent ride. So, will he lift the Seahawks to new heights or crash and burn like the Jets teams of his early career? Let’s break it down.
Darnold’s Dream Season vs. Seattle’s Reality
In 2024, Sam Darnold thrived under ideal conditions in Minnesota. He had the benefit of Kevin O’Connell’s brilliant play-calling, a top-tier offensive line that kept him clean, and an embarrassment of riches at receiver, headlined by Justin Jefferson, who torched defenses with ease. Darnold’s deep-ball prowess was on full display, as he led the NFL with 28 completions and 9 touchdowns on passes of 20+ air yards. His 35 touchdown passes tied for second in Vikings single-season history, and his 14-3 regular-season record earned him a Pro Bowl nod. It was a remarkable turnaround for a quarterback once labeled a bust after stints with the Jets and Panthers.
But Seattle isn’t Minnesota. The Seahawks’ offensive line has been a persistent Achilles’ heel, ranking 26th in pass-blocking efficiency in 2024 according to Pro Football Focus. Geno Smith faced pressure on 38.5% of his dropbacks last season, despite having one of the quickest releases in the league (2.82 seconds). Darnold, by contrast, held the ball longer in Minnesota (3.08 seconds, third-longest in the NFL) and still faced pressure on 37.9% of his dropbacks. Without Minnesota’s superior protection, Darnold will have less time to scan the field and make decisions in Seattle. That’s a problem when your quarterback has a history of seeing ghosts under pressure—something Darnold famously admitted to during his Jets days.
The Receiving Corps: From Jefferson to Kupp and… Who?
Another massive downgrade for Darnold is the loss of Justin Jefferson, arguably the best receiver in the NFL. Jefferson’s ability to stretch the field and win one-on-one matchups gave Darnold a safety net that few quarterbacks enjoy. In Seattle, he won’t have that luxury. The Seahawks traded DK Metcalf, their most dynamic playmaker, to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a second-round pick, and released veteran Tyler Lockett as a cap casualty. However if after adding Kupp if he can stay healthy will help in the slot! That leaves Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the primary returning receiver, a talented young player who broke out in 2024 with 65 catches for 913 yards and 6 touchdowns. But Smith-Njigba isn’t the deep threat Metcalf was, nor does he command the attention Jefferson did. Seattle’s receiving corps is now a question mark, likely relying on unproven talent or yet-to-be-signed free agents to fill the void.
Without a go-to receiver who can consistently get open, Darnold’s decision-making window shrinks even further. In Minnesota, he could rely on Jefferson to bail him out on deep throws or contested catches. In Seattle, he’ll need to be more precise and efficient—qualities he hasn’t always shown in his career. The lack of a true WR1 could lead to more stalled drives and fewer explosive plays, putting additional pressure on an offense already hampered by its line.
Predicting Darnold’s 2025 Stats
Given these challenges, it’s hard to see Darnold replicating his 2024 numbers in Seattle. The combination of a weaker offensive line, a less talented receiving corps, and a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak (who worked with Darnold in San Francisco in 2023) suggests a step back in production. However, Darnold’s familiarity with Kubiak’s West Coast, zone-based scheme should help ease the transition and keep the offense functional.
Here’s a reasonable projection for Darnold in 2025:
- Passing Yards: 3,700-3,900 (down from 4,319)
- Touchdowns: 24-26 (down from 35)
- Interceptions: 12-14 (similar to 12)
- Passer Rating: 94-97 (down from 102.5)
These numbers reflect a decline from his Minnesota peak but still represent a solid, if unspectacular, season. The drop in yards and touchdowns accounts for the loss of Jefferson and Metcalf, as well as the increased pressure from a porous offensive line. Darnold’s interception total might remain stable, as he’s shown improved decision-making in recent years, but he’ll need to adapt to a less forgiving environment.
Seattle’s Playoff Chances
Despite the downgrade in supporting cast, I believe the Seahawks can still sneak into the playoffs in 2025 with Darnold at the helm. Seattle’s defense, which improved under head coach Mike Macdonald in 2024, held opponents to 18.4 points per game over the final eight weeks of the season. With key pieces like linebacker Ernest Jones and defensive tackle Jarran Reed re-signed, the defense should remain a strength. Pair that with a run-heavy approach under Kubiak—bolstered by running back Kenneth Walker III—and the Seahawks can lean on their ground game to take pressure off Darnold.
The NFC West remains competitive, with the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Arizona Cardinals all posing threats. However, Seattle’s 10-7 record in 2024 shows they can win with an imperfect offense. If Darnold can manage games effectively and avoid the costly mistakes of his early career, the Seahawks could finish 9-8. That should be enough to snag a Wild Card spot in the NFC, especially if they bolster their offensive line and receiving corps through free agency or the draft (where they now hold five picks in the top 100).
Final Verdict: Soaring or Crashing?
Sam Darnold won’t have the same gaudy stats in Seattle that he did in Minnesota, but he doesn’t need to. The Seahawks aren’t asking him to be a superstar—they’re asking him to be a competent quarterback who can lead a balanced team to the postseason. While the loss of DK Metcalf and the shaky offensive line are significant hurdles, Darnold’s experience, familiarity with Kubiak’s system, and a strong defense give Seattle a fighting chance. This won’t be a fiery blaze like Darnold’s Jets days, but it won’t be a soaring ascent past their ceiling either. Instead, expect a controlled flight—a bumpy ride that still lands safely in the playoffs.
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