The Phantom Call

The Colorado Avalanche have been on a mission this season, and with the NHL trade deadline now in the rearview mirror as of March 9, 2025, their roster looks like a contender ready to make some serious noise. General Manager Chris MacFarland didn’t sit on his hands—he went all-in, adding Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, Jimmy Vesey, Erik Johnson, and Ryan Lindgren to an already stacked lineup. But how much did these moves shift the Avalanche’s odds of hoisting the Stanley Cup? Let’s break it down, comparing their chances before and after this flurry of trades, with a spotlight on the Brock Nelson deal that kicked things off.

Before the Deadline: A Contender, But With Questions Heading into early March, the Avalanche were firmly in the playoff picture, sitting at 35-24-2 and holding the first wild card spot in the Western Conference. With stars like Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar leading the charge, oddsmakers had them as a solid bet to make a deep run, but not quite at the top tier. Posts on X and betting insights from around that time pegged their Stanley Cup odds at around +1000 (implying a 9.09% chance of winning). That’s respectable—good enough to put them in the conversation alongside teams like the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars—but it also reflected some uncertainty.

The Avs had depth issues, particularly at center behind MacKinnon, and their blue line was thin beyond Makar and Devon Toews. Losing Mikko Rantanen earlier in the season was a gut punch, and while Martin Necas stepped up, there were still gaps. Casey Mittelstadt hadn’t found his groove as a second-line center, and the bottom-six forwards and third-pairing defensemen were a revolving door. At +1000, Vegas saw the potential but wasn’t fully sold on their ability to outlast the West’s heavyweights.

The Brock Nelson Bombshell: Odds Shift Overnight
The first domino fell on March 6 during a 7-3 thrashing of the San Jose Sharks, when the Avalanche snagged Brock Nelson from the New York Islanders. This wasn’t just a depth move—Nelson’s a proven top-six center with size, scoring touch, and playoff experience. The trade cost Colorado defenseman Oliver Kylington, prospect Calum Ritchie, and some draft picks, but it signaled intent: the Avs were loading up for now, not later.

The impact was immediate. Posts on X noted that Colorado’s Stanley Cup odds jumped from +1000 to +700 overnight after the Nelson deal. That’s a leap from a 9.09% implied probability to 12.5%—a clear sign that oddsmakers saw this as a game-changer. Nelson slots perfectly into the second-line center role, giving the Avs a one-two punch down the middle with MacKinnon that they haven’t had since Nazem Kadri left after the 2022 Cup win. Pair him with Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin, and that’s a line that can tilt the ice against anyone.

The Deadline Haul: Coyle, Vesey, Johnson, and Lindgren
MacFarland wasn’t done. On deadline day, March 7, the Avalanche kept the momentum going, adding four more pieces:

Charlie Coyle from the Boston Bruins:                                                  A rugged, shoot-first center with playoff pedigree, traded for Mittelstadt, prospect Will Zellers, and a 2025 second-rounder. Coyle’s $5.25M deal runs through next season, adding stability.
Jimmy Vesey from the New York Rangers:                                                A gritty bottom-six winger with penalty-kill chops, acquired alongside Ryan Lindgren on March 1.
Erik Johnson from the Philadelphia Flyers:                     The 2022 Cup champ returns as a depth defenseman and locker-room boost, swapped for Givani Smith.             
Ryan Lindgren from the Rangers: A shot-blocking warrior who shores up the blue line, giving Jared Bednar more options to manage Makar and Toews’s minutes.
These moves didn’t just patch holes—they built a roster that’s deeper, tougher, and more versatile. Coyle gives Bednar flexibility to roll three scoring lines or go heavy with a shutdown unit. Vesey and Johnson bring veteran savvy and grit, while Lindgren’s defensive tenacity could be a playoff X-factor.

Post-Deadline Odds: Where Do They Stand Now?
While exact odds after every single trade aren’t pinned down in one spot, the Nelson shift from +1000 to +700 sets the tone. Adding Coyle, Vesey, Johnson, and Lindgren likely pushed those odds even lower—let’s estimate around +600 or better (14.29% implied probability). Why? The Avalanche addressed every major weakness:

Center Depth:                  MacKinnon, Nelson, and Coyle give them three legit pivots, with Jack Drury or Ross Colton as extras. That’s a nightmare for opponents in a seven-game series.
Defensive Stability: Lindgren and Johnson join Makar, Toews, and a returning Josh Manson, making the blue line less reliant on its stars.
Bottom-Six Grit: Vesey and Coyle add size and physicality, turning a soft underbelly into a strength.
At +600, they’d be neck-and-neck with the West’s elite like Winnipeg and Dallas, and maybe even creeping up on the league-wide favorites. The Avs’ implied probability jumping from 9.09% to 14.29% reflects a team that’s no longer a dark horse—they’re a legit threat.

The Risk and Reward
Of course, it’s not all sunshine. Nelson and Lindgren are pending UFAs, and the Avs burned through draft picks like they’re going out of style. If this roster flames out in the first round, the long-term outlook gets murky. But for 2025? This is a team built to win now, with a core still in its prime and a supporting cast that’s never been deeper.

Final Take
Before the deadline, the Avalanche were a +1000 long shot—talented but flawed. After adding Brock Nelson and the crew, they’ve climbed to +600 territory, a 5% boost in their Stanley Cup odds that could still be climbing as the market settles. This isn’t just a roster tweak; it’s a statement. The Avs are all-in, and oddsmakers—and fans—are taking notice. Buckle up, Colorado: this could be one hell of a spring.Heading into early March, the Avalanche were firmly in the playoff picture, sitting at 35-24-2 and holding the first wild card spot in the Western Conference. With stars like Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar leading the charge, oddsmakers had them as a solid bet to make a deep run, but not quite at the top tier. Posts on X and betting insights from around that time pegged their Stanley Cup odds at around +1000 (implying a 9.09% chance of winning). That’s respectable—good enough to put them in the conversation alongside teams like the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars—but it also reflected some uncertainty.

The Avs had depth issues, particularly at center behind MacKinnon, and their blue line was thin beyond Makar and Devon Toews. Losing Mikko Rantanen earlier in the season was a gut punch, and while Martin Necas stepped up, there were still gaps. Casey Mittelstadt hadn’t found his groove as a second-line center, and the bottom-six forwards and third-pairing defensemen were a revolving door. At +1000, Vegas saw the potential but wasn’t fully sold on their ability to outlast the West’s heavyweights.