Tonight, March 12, 2025, the Utah Hockey Club (28-25-11) takes on the Anaheim Ducks (28-29-7) at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City at 10:00 p.m. ET. On paper, Utah holds the edge in this matchup, particularly when it comes to their defensive structure and ability to generate quality chances. However, don’t sleep on this game—it’s far from a guaranteed win for the Hockey Club. Anaheim’s goaltending has been a brick wall this season, and if Utah’s defense gets sloppy, they could drop two crucial points in their quest for the final Western Conference playoff spot.
Utah’s Defensive Edge
Utah enters this game with a clear advantage in defensive metrics, particularly in unblocked shot percentage (Fenwick). According to MoneyPuck.com, Utah ranks 6th in the NHL with a 53% unblocked shot percentage, meaning they’re generating more quality chances while limiting opponents’ opportunities. In contrast, Anaheim languishes at 30th with a 48% mark, showing they struggle to control the puck and prevent dangerous looks. Utah’s blueline, led by Mikhail Sergachev (averaging 25:31 of ice time per game) and Michael Kesselring (120 shots on goal this season), has been key to this success. They rank 14th in shots against per game at 28.0 and 15th in goals against at 2.94, per MoneyPuck’s season stats.
If Utah can leverage this defensive edge tonight, they’ll be in a strong position to dictate the game’s pace. The key will be supporting goaltender Karel Vejmelka, who’s posted a 2.49 GAA and a .909 SV% in his starts this season. If the defense can limit Anaheim’s shot volume and quality—especially their 5-on-5 scoring chances, where Utah ranks 13th in expected goals against (xGA) at 2.61 per game—Vejmelka should have a manageable workload. This, in turn, will give Utah’s potent offense, averaging 3.2 goals per game, room to overcome Anaheim’s stingy goaltending.
Anaheim’s Goaltending Wall
Speaking of goaltending, Anaheim’s tandem of Lukas Dostal and John Gibson has been a tough nut to crack. Dostal, in particular, has emerged as a star, with a projected .915 SV% and a 2.50 GAA through his starts this season. Gibson, when healthy, complements him with a .910 SV% and a 2.60 GAA. Together, they’ve kept Anaheim in games despite the team’s offensive struggles (30th in goals per game at 2.7) and poor special teams (31st on the power play at 13%). MoneyPuck lists Anaheim’s team save percentage at .905, which is middle-of-the-pack, but their ability to steal games is undeniable—especially against a Utah team that’s lost both prior meetings this season (5-4 in OT on October 16 and 5-4 in a shootout on December 22).
Utah’s offense, led by Clayton Keller (on pace for 35+ goals) and Barrett Hayton (averaging 0.8 points per game), will need to be relentless to beat this duo. Anaheim’s defense, however, is a weak link, ranking 32nd in shots against per game at 32.5 and 28th in expected goals against at 2.95. If Utah can exploit this sloppiness and pepper the net with shots, they’ll have a chance to break through.
Don’t Sleep on This Game
While Utah’s defensive metrics and offensive upside give them the edge, this game is no gimme. Anaheim has a knack for playing spoiler, and their goaltending could turn this into a low-scoring grinder. Utah’s 23.5% power play (11th in the league) and 51.2% faceoff win rate (11th) give them additional advantages over Anaheim’s 73.7% penalty kill (28th) and league-worst 44.2% faceoff percentage, but they’ll need to capitalize. The Ducks have averaged five goals per game in their two wins against Utah this season, exploiting defensive lapses that the Hockey Club can’t afford tonight.
Shot Attempts: The Defining Factor
Keep your eyes on shot attempts tonight—they could be the main factor in determining the outcome. MoneyPuck data shows Utah averaging 31.5 shots on goal per game (12th in the league), while Anaheim sits at 27.8 (26th). More importantly, Utah’s ability to limit Anaheim’s shot attempts while generating their own will be critical. In their last five games, Utah has averaged 33.2 shot attempts per game, compared to Anaheim’s 29.1. If Utah can push their shot volume above 35 and hold Anaheim under 30, they’ll likely tilt the ice in their favor. The more shots Utah gets through Anaheim’s shaky defense, and the more they limit the Ducks’ chances, the better their odds of overcoming Dostal or Gibson.
Prediction: Utah 4, Anaheim 3 (Possibly OT)
I’m predicting a tight 4-3 win for Utah, possibly in overtime. Utah’s defensive edge and superior shot generation should give them the upper hand, with Keller, Hayton, and Dylan Guenther (on pace for 25+ goals) leading the charge. Anaheim will counter with a goal from Alex Killorn and a gritty effort from Mason McTavish, but their lack of offensive depth and defensive sloppiness will cost them. Vejmelka will need to be sharp, especially in the third period, where Anaheim’s comeback attempts could force extra time. Look for Utah to capitalize on a late power play or a defensive miscue to seal the deal.
Conclusion: Defensive Sloppiness Could Cost Utah
Utah has the tools to win this game, but defensive sloppiness could cost them two crucial points in the standings. With just 67 points through 64 games, they’re three points behind the final wild card spot in the West. A loss tonight could widen that gap, especially with Anaheim nipping at their heels at 67 points through 64 games. If Utah’s defense stays disciplined, supports Vejmelka, and lets their offense go to work, they’ll slip into that playoff spot. But if they let Anaheim hang around, those Ducks goaltenders could steal another one. Buckle up—this one’s going to be a battle!
Leave a comment